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Will Tesla Pickup Beat Ford and Rivian?

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09:46   |   Feb 27, 2019

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Will Tesla Pickup Beat Ford and Rivian?
Will Tesla Pickup Beat Ford and Rivian? thumb Will Tesla Pickup Beat Ford and Rivian? thumb Will Tesla Pickup Beat Ford and Rivian? thumb

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  • - So I've been all electric since January of 2018
  • with two Teslas, a Model S and a Model 3.
  • But, as you can see, I also have my old '99 Tacoma
  • behind me because I have a house and I go on surf trips
  • and it's just much more convenient.
  • Now we don't have many good options yet
  • for an electric truck,
  • but there are a lot coming out soon.
  • So I thought we could just have a look now
  • at what we know and what's rumored
  • and what's upcoming in the electric truck space
  • to see which one is actually the best.
  • Let's go.
  • (upbeat music)
  • Trucks outsell every other type of vehicle
  • in the U.S. by far and have done so since 2013.
  • In 2018, light trucks outsold cars two-to-one
  • in the U.S. with just under 12 million sold
  • and a gap that appears to be widening between the two.
  • Of those, the Ford F-Series is by far the most selling truck
  • in the U.S.A. with over 900 thousand sold in 2018.
  • Which is nearly double the next best-selling truck,
  • the Chevy Silverado.
  • So, the Ford F-Series is clearly the target for Tesla
  • and when they make a vehicle in a new category,
  • they don't just make a practical one,
  • they come out swinging.
  • Remember the Semi?
  • They could've made a simple, small delivery van, but no,
  • they came out with a class-a truck,
  • capable of towing more than any other vehicle on the road.
  • And even the Model S,
  • the first sedan that they came out with,
  • became a best-selling luxury sedan
  • due to its incredible features.
  • So, that's why I think it makes sense here
  • to look at the F-150.
  • It is essentially the gold standard in trucks
  • sold in the United States.
  • But there's also Rivian, who already is taking reservations
  • and just recently raised 700 million dollars
  • in funding led by Amazon.
  • So, we kind of have
  • a Bezos versus Musk thing going on here.
  • But, in reality, it's everyone versus Ford in this space.
  • Even Chevy is miles behind them
  • when it comes to their annual sales volume.
  • So, let's see how these three different trucks stack up.
  • First, let's see Rivian
  • since we have actual specs released by them.
  • The Rivian R1T comes in with a 400 mile range,
  • 11 thousand pounds of towing capacity,
  • a 1,763 pound payload,
  • and support for 160 kilowatt charging via the CCS port.
  • This is a pretty impressive truck out of the gate,
  • one that certainly impressed me
  • and many other people in the media.
  • They report 750 horsepower, which is impressive,
  • and 14 thousand newton meters of torque,
  • which I'm not sure what that will actually be
  • when they convert it into the pound feet
  • we're typically using when comparing automobiles
  • because we don't know the exact gear ratio
  • which we need to actually convert that.
  • They have some really cool features here
  • with the gear tunnel, a really big frunk,
  • the fold-down rear gate, built-in air compressors,
  • and power outlets in the bed.
  • They're taking deliveries now with arrivals expected
  • to be late next year in 2020.
  • And now, let's see how that stacks up to the F-150.
  • The thing about the F-150 is
  • there are so many different trim options
  • that it's really difficult to just nail it down.
  • So, what I'm kind of looking at here
  • is the max specs from them.
  • So, we start out with 450 horsepower
  • and 410 pound feet of towing.
  • That's a 12 thousand pound towing capacity
  • with a three thousand pound payload.
  • Pretty impressive.
  • Now, the price range, again,
  • because there are so many options,
  • go all the way from 28 thousand up to 67 thousand
  • before adding any of the additional options you can get.
  • And we typically don't talk about range of gas cars,
  • because they can fill up essentially anywhere,
  • but this one, when calculating it out,
  • comes out to about 570 miles on a single tank,
  • which is pretty good.
  • And F-150 also has some really cool features,
  • such as a driver-assist program
  • similar to Tesla's auto-pilot, backup assist,
  • which is great when you have a trailer
  • and you're trying to weave maybe a boat
  • into a specific area, in-vehicle wifi,
  • which lets you connect to up to 10 devices
  • to the 4G LTE signal, Alexa integration and Waze integration
  • with the navigation system.
  • Now, of course, you can buy this now
  • and get it within days or weeks, depending on your area.
  • And lastly, let's bring in Tesla.
  • Now, before I go further with the specs that we have here,
  • just a caveat that all of these were collected
  • from either tweets directly from Elon
  • or statements he's made in interviews.
  • Tesla hasn't officially unveiled any of this stuff.
  • So, a lot of these things may change.
  • So, just take some of these with a grain of salt.
  • So, starting out, Elon has stated that the Tesla truck
  • will have a 400 to 500 mile range maybe more.
  • With a towing capacity of 300 thousand pounds,
  • which is one of those things that you may question
  • until you remember the video of a Tesla Model X
  • pulling a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
  • So, this actually could happen.
  • Elon has also said it will be a big truck
  • which means it will likely compete directly with the F-150
  • or one of the more heavy-duty vehicles
  • used on construction sites.
  • It's unclear what the price is for this vehicle,
  • but likely, because it's Tesla
  • and because of these specs, it's gonna be very expensive.
  • Elon has said it will be a six seater,
  • it will be a dual-motor all-wheel drive vehicle,
  • which kind of makes sense,
  • and it will have 250 volt connections in the bed
  • for heavy-duty tools, along with an air compressor.
  • We're hoping to see an unveiling this summer,
  • but it's really unclear when that will happen
  • nor do we have any idea when they'll start to deliver them.
  • The earliest they could really possibly hope
  • to get these in people's hands is late 2020,
  • which does match up with Rivian
  • and I think would be a good target for them to shoot for.
  • So, when you compare these three,
  • it definitely looks like Tesla and Rivian
  • have a big hill to climb here.
  • The F-150 not only has amazing specs
  • and really cool features already built-in,
  • it has been the best-selling truck for a long time.
  • So, you have a really strong brand loyalty there,
  • just like Tesla and others do as well.
  • And that isn't to mention that Ford themselves
  • are reportedly working on an electric version of the F-150.
  • We won't likely be able to see that, however,
  • until late 2020 when the overall model, the F-Series,
  • gets an updated design.
  • But, what it really comes down to, I think,
  • for any of these options to succeed,
  • is the availability of a strong charging network.
  • Tesla obviously has the advantage here
  • with the Supercharger network now covering large chunks
  • of the U.S. and over 12 thousand Superchargers world-wide,
  • that which includes Europe and Asia.
  • Plus, many more on the way,
  • likely to double that amount in 2019 alone.
  • But, there are others out there as well.
  • Specifically, one to look out for is Electrify America.
  • Electrify America is a charging network
  • that's popping up all over the U.S. recently
  • and has a 10-year plan to invest over two billion dollars
  • in EV infrastructure and education programs
  • in the United States.
  • They offer fast charging stations
  • and are continually expanding their network
  • across the country.
  • And there are other charging networks out there,
  • such as EVgo, which already have a decent infrastructure
  • in popular cities with fast charging systems
  • that will rival Tesla's, however, the overall number of them
  • is substantially lower than the Supercharger network.
  • So, while Tesla clearly has the advantage
  • on the charging network now,
  • it's one that I don't think will really be
  • that big of a deal going forward
  • as these other networks start to build up
  • their infrastructure.
  • So, if Tesla wants to win here,
  • they need to offer a compelling vehicle,
  • which is kind of a no-brainer, we know they'll do that,
  • but it also needs to come in at an affordable price.
  • That's more difficult to do because of the sheer cost
  • of the batteries needed in a bigger vehicle like this.
  • And they need to deliver it on time,
  • which, admittedly, is not their strong-suit.
  • And if Rivian wants to win in this space,
  • they should look for a good partner
  • and team up with some of these other big companies
  • to fill in the gaps in their offering,
  • notably, the charging network.
  • Then, keep pushing hard to deliver these trucks on time.
  • And, of course with Ford, if they're able to deliver
  • a compelling electric F-150
  • and partner with some of these bigger charging networks,
  • or just flat-out buy them,
  • I think they could continue their dominance in this space.
  • Which might actually be a reasonable outcome,
  • considering their recent, radical shift away
  • from making cheap sedans and focusing on SUVs and trucks.
  • But, their biggest challenge by far, I believe,
  • will be having enough batteries
  • that are of high enough quality to power these new trucks.
  • So, who has the best shot at winning this race?
  • It's hard to say.
  • Tesla I think has some advantages with the brand loyalty
  • and the Supercharger network but their inability
  • to get things out on time
  • could really, kind of, put them behind.
  • Ford with their vast resources and legacy in this space,
  • do, I think, have a strong advantage.
  • But, need the ability to get the batteries in
  • and make all that happen.
  • Which, as we have seen from other major auto-makers,
  • is not really a walk in the park.
  • And Rivian, now with Amazon backing them,
  • I think has a legit shot here.
  • But, there is still a lot of kind of unknowns
  • in the process from where they're at now
  • and to actually having these cars on the road.
  • So, it's gonna be an interesting journey
  • and one I hope you'll stick with me
  • because, like all things, this is fun to see
  • this transition we're going through
  • from gas-powered, diesel, kind of, a burning
  • into a more sustainable form of transportation.
  • So, let me know what you guys think down below.
  • Who do you think will win and why?
  • I'm really curious to hear your thoughts on this.
  • And, lastly, don't forget,
  • when you free the data, your mind will follow.
  • Thanks for watching and I'll see you guys
  • back here next time.
  • (upbeat music)
  • Hey and thanks for watching the video.
  • If you like data, want to learn more,
  • maybe even make a career out of it,
  • I have a free course to help you
  • kickstart your data professional career.
  • It's a part of the FTD Academy, the Free the Data Academy.
  • And it's free to you.
  • You can go check it out, learn more, and sign-up
  • at FTDAcademy.com.

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// Notes
Trucks outsell every other type of vehicle in the US by far and have done so since 2013. In 2018 light trucks outsold cars 2 to 1 in the US with just under 12M sold with a gap that appears to be widening.

Of those, the Ford F-Series is by far the most selling truck in the USA with over 900,000 sold in 2018 which is nearly double the next best selling truck, the Chevy Silverado

And the way Tesla works is they always come out swinging when they make a new vehicle

Remember the Semi? They could have made a simple small delivery van, but no they came out with a class 8 truck capable of towing more than any other vehicle on the road
And even the Model S - the first Sedan came out and became the best selling luxury Sedan due to its incredible features

So it makes sense that Tesla is going to come out with a truck that competes directly with the F150

But there's also Rivian who already is taking reservations and just recently raised $700M in funding led by Amazon
So we sort of have a Bezos versus Musk thing going on here
But in reality it's everyone against Ford in this space, even Chevy is miles behind them when it comes to annual sales volume

So let's see how these stack up...

First, let's see Rivian since we have actual specs from them...
Rivian specs

400 mile range
11,000lb towing capacity
1763lb payload
160 kW charging via CCS
750hp
14,000nm torque, not sure what that will mean for actual lb-ft

Extra cool features the gear tunnel, frunk and fold down rear gate, built in air compressor and power outlets in bed

Taking deliveries now with arrivals expected late next year in 2020
And now let's see how that compares to the Ford F150
F150 specs

450hp
410 lb-ft
12,000lb towing
3,000lb payload
price from 28K to 67K
Range of up to 570mi

Also equipped with some cool features:

backup assist,
driver assist kinda like tesla auto-pilot
in-vehicle wifi
built-in Alexa
and waze integration

Of course, can go buy this now and get it within days or weeks at worst

And lastly, let's bring in Tesla. Now we don't actually have the specs for this truck yet but Elon has shared a lot online and talked about it several times on interviews, so these aren't made up but do take them with a grain of salt as the actual specs are likely to differ once they're available
Tesla truck specs

400 to 500-mile range, maybe more
300,000lb towing capacity?
Big truck, likely to compete directly w/ the F150

Unclear the price, but likely expensive due to the sheer power it will have

6 seater
dual motor AWD
240v connection for heavy duty tools
air compressor

Hoping to see unveiling this summer but unsure when and also unclear when they'll start delivering, at the earliest likely late 2020

// Music by Epidemic Sound

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